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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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