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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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