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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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