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Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
 Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle rather than dramatic
Coal carriers can look forward to a 26m-tonne increase in movements of the black rock by sea this year, although that increase springs off the lower baseline of pandemic-struck 2020.
Statistics from global energy analyst IEA put 2020 trade volumes at a 10% retraction, equivalent to around 150m tonnes - the largest drop ever - with seaborne coal trade hardest hit. In that context, the additional 26m tonnes predicted for 2021 is worthy of little celebration.
“The Covid-19 crisis has completely reshaped global coal markets. Before the pandemic, we expected a small rebound in coal demand in 2020, but we have since witnessed the largest drop in coal consumption since the Second World War,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security. “The decline would have been even steeper without the strong economic rebound in China – the world’s largest coal consumer – in the second half of the year.”
All this comes on the top of a bumper year for global coal trade in 2019, when it reached its highest ever volume at 1,445m tonnes, a 0.8% increase from the previous year, with the vast majority of coal traded in 2019 - 92% and 1,331m tonnes - moved by sea. Countering this, exports in 2021 are expected to reach 1,323m tonnes this year. “This means that export volumes will remain well below the pre-Covid volumes,” said the IEA.
“Short-lived” rebound
In terms of demand, a rebound is expected this year, and while it is forecast to be “short-lived” there is “little sign that the world’s coal consumption is set to decline substantially in the coming years”, said the IEA. If the world economy recovers, global coal demand is expected to rise 2.6% in 2021. China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, but there could be surprise increases in coal consumption for the US and Europe – their first demand rises in nearly a decade.
“However, global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met,” cautioned the IEA.
The “short-lived” refers to the forecast that coal use will flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tonnes – although the IEA acknowledges that its 2025 forecast will need to be reviewed following the release of the Chinese government’s 14th Five-Year Plan. “Renewables are on track to surpass coal as the largest source of electricity in the world by 2025. And by that time, natural gas will likely have taken over coal as the second largest source of primary energy after oil,” said Sadamori.
The IEA expects the future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. China and India currently account for 65% of global coal demand, which rises to 75% if Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia are included. By 2025, ASEAN will become the third-largest coal-consuming region, surpassing the US and the EU.
Changing trade patterns
In its Coal 2020 report, released mid-December, the IEA also notes that the patterns of the international thermal coal trade are shifting. Traditionally, trade was characterised by two geographic basins: the Pacific Basin, where Japan and Korea were the top importers; and the Atlantic Basin, where European countries imported most of the traded coal. South Africa, and to a much lesser extent Russia, linked the two basins in coal trade. “This no longer portrays international coal trade patterns, as the Atlantic market has separated from Asian market,” says the IEA. “For instance, in 2019, the volume of coal imports in India were almost double EU import quantities, a clear indicator of a shift to Asia and the waning of Europe in international coal markets.”
For the US, a brief surge in demand brought about by higher natural gas prices and an expected pickup in coal demand this year does not materially improve the medium term prospects for coal. The IEA points out that big US mining companies are increasingly shifting away from thermal coal for power generation and focusing on metallurgical coal for iron and steel production, changing the demand pattern.
Another factor driving 2021 uncertainty is lower imports of Australian coal by China. In mid-December, China appeared to formalise what had been an unofficial ban on Australian coal exports. Wood Mackenzie noted that the action had been “implemented very effectively”, with total coal export volumes down to 0.4m tonnes in November 2020, from a usual range of between 6m and 10m tonnes a month. Australia has asked Beijing to clarify the situation and has warned that China would be breaching its commitments under WTO membership and in relation to the free trade agreements signed between the two nations if it has ordered its state-owned enterprises to boycott Australian coal, as state media reported in December.
Bringing together all the variables on the international coal trade, the IEA still forecasts a recovery this year, but is less optimistic about medium-term prospects. It is particularly edgy about the evolution of Chinese import policies and developments in India’s indigenous thermal coal production, questioning how those developments will impact future coal trade.
By Carly Fields
Source: Baltic Exchange
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Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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