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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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