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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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