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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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