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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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Showing 706 to 710 news of total 6871 |
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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