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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Wednesday, 11 November 09
INDIAN COAL IMPORT FROM SA IN OCTOBER
Reuters reported that India imported 2.4 million tonnes of coal from South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal in October 2009, 35% of the total of ...
Wednesday, 11 November 09
INDONESIA ASKS DOMESTIC COAL FIRMS TO SET ASIDE 30PCT OF OUTPUT
Indonesian government said that it had asked domestic coal producers to set aside 30% of their output next year to meet demand from new coal fired p ...
Wednesday, 11 November 09
MINING ACQUISITIONS BECOMING MORE STRATEGIC - E&Y
Mining Weekly reported that, Although miners around the world are looking to position themselves for growth, companies are being more selective when ...
Tuesday, 10 November 09
THAI COAL MINER BANPU Q3 NET UP, BEATS FORECAST
Reuters reported that, Thailand's top coal miner, Banpu, said on Tuesday its third-quarter net earnings rose a higher-than-expected 22 percent, hel ...
Monday, 09 November 09
NAPOCOR DEFERS 50,000 T COAL TENDER
Top Philippine electricity producer National Power Corp. (Napocor) has indefinitely postponed a tender for supply of 50,000 tons of steam coal sched ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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