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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Fitch RatingsCommenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared to its historic lows recorded in August this year.

Fitch Ratings expects the price to continue to recover in 2021, due to the expected rise in import demand and improved sentiment following a coal trade pact between Indonesia and China.

According to Fitch, mining contractors are also likely to benefit from rising prices as their service rates tend to follow coal prices.
 
Fitch expects Indonesian coal prices to benefit from rising overseas demand, better supply discipline and improved trading sentiment with its largest coal importer China, Fitch’s Indonesia and Australia Data Snap shot shows. 

Fitch considers the recent trade pact between Indonesia and China’s coal trading bodies, for over USD1.5 billion of coal trade over  the next three years,  to be largely symbolic as historical trade volumes have been higher. Nevertheless, Fitch thinks this could help with the sentiment for Indonesian coal prices. Indonesia’s coal exports fell by around 14% yoy in January-October2020, with most of the decline occurring in 2H20.
 
According to Fitch, the plant load factors (PLF) of  coal-based  thermal  power  plants in  India improved to 55.5% in October 2020 after power demand returned to growth.  The  coal-fired  plants were hit badly with PLFs falling well below 50% in April-September 2020 when power demand fell sharply and the "must-run"status of renewable power producers limited curtailments for the latter.


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