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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 11 September 17
A PUNCHY WEEK FOR THE BIG SHIPS AS THE RATE FOR WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA HIT $8.00 THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY THREE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships as the rate for West Australia/China hit $8.00 the first time in nearly three years. A Jiangsu Steamship ...
Monday, 11 September 17
INDONESIAN ICPR SURGES HIGHER, POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY RISE SINCE DECEMBER 2016, ESDM DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 9.60% in September, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 11 September 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 6.235 MMT OF 5700 AND 5100 NAR COAL FOR 2017 TO 2022 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 1,590,000 Metric Tons of Bitumino ...
Monday, 11 September 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK; BCI UP 22.22% & BPI UP 14.77%
COALspot.com: The freight market rose in all segments week over week. Mainly Cape and Panamax have supported to pushed up BDI this past week, BDI, ...
Friday, 08 September 17
MIXED SIGNALS ON REFINERY PREPARATIONS FOR 2020 FUEL CHANGES - IBIA
A recent consultancy survey has suggested that some 85% of refiners have not made plans for how to deal with the expected dramatic fall in g ...
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Showing 1946 to 1950 news of total 6871 |
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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