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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 14 September 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT; 390K MT FOR NOV LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal ...
Wednesday, 13 September 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2017 WERE 55% HIGHER COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from an average of 34% in 2016 to a ...
Wednesday, 13 September 17
SOME THOUGHTS ON NORTH KOREA, US & CHINA - THEODORE NTALAKOS
The trade volume between North Korea and China is more than $5 billion per year. 83% of North Korea's exports end up in China; similarly, about ...
Tuesday, 12 September 17
NEWCASTLE FOB PRICES ROSE STRONGLY AND ARE NOW THREATENING TO BREAK THROUGH US$100/T - DANIEL HYNES
COALspot.com: The rise in crude oil market supported further gains in thermal coal, says Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acco ...
Tuesday, 12 September 17
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 2.5 MILLION TONS OF 5700 NAR COAL FOR 5 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous ...
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Showing 1941 to 1945 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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