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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 20 September 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
An undoubtedly interesting market lately is the newbuilding market, in which we are witnessing numerous orders across all sectors and sizes. At the ...
Monday, 18 September 17
COAL PRICES WERE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEEK OVER WEEK - ANZ
COALspot.com: Coal prices were relatively unchanged, with most interest remaining in the thermal coal market said Daniel Hynes. However, falling st ...
Monday, 18 September 17
PROSPECTS ARE NOT SO CLEAR CUT FOR COAL - CLARKSONS
Prospects are not so clear-cut for coal. According to Clarksons, coal has been a key energy source since the Industrial Revolution and in 2016, ste ...
Friday, 15 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 14 September 17
THE FIRM COAL TRADE IS SUPPORTING SUPRAS; FIXING AROUND LOW $13000 WITH DELIVERY THAILAND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week has brought Supras firm rates and numerous orders. Scrap orders from Cont to Med still pay $11000 and Fertilizer from Baltic t ...
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Showing 1936 to 1940 news of total 6871 |
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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