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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 26 September 17
REDUCING THE RISK OF LIQUEFACTION - IUMI
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Liquefaction is a phenomenon that can take place in granular materials, such as soil or fine ore, where the beh ...
Tuesday, 26 September 17
THE CURRENT HIGHS IN THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET WILL SURELY BE SURPASSED AND BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN IN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Dry Bulk market con!nues to show a strong face amidst the favorable tail winds being seen, which have helped the Bal!c Dry Index inch above the ...
Monday, 25 September 17
CHOICES FOR SHIPPING AS 2020 APPROACHES? - CLARKSONS
Historically, the fuel of choice for the vast majority of large cargo ships has been heavy fuel oil. But in 2020, sulphur oxide emissions will be c ...
Monday, 25 September 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE IN ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market rose in all segments except Panamax week over week. Mainly Cape has supported to boosted up BDI this past week, BD ...
Monday, 25 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE FOURTH WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.5 million short ton ...
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Showing 1931 to 1935 news of total 6871 |
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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