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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 12 October 17
THERMAL COAL PRICES IN EUROPE AND ASIA PUSHING HIGHER - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets took the lead from the oil market, with thermal coal prices in Europe and Asia pushing higher says Daniel Hynes,Senior Commodity Strat ...
Wednesday, 11 October 17
2020 DEBATE AT IBIA'S LISW EVENT: COMPLIANCE & ENFORCEMENT – IT'S COMPLICATED : IBIA
There is no doubt about the start date for the 0.50% marine fuel sulphur limit in MARPOL Annex VI, but questions remain around how it will be enfor ...
Wednesday, 11 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PPADIMITRIOU
With the majority of second-hand tonnage transactions taking place in the dry bulk sector it’s easy to lose sight of what is happening over a ...
Tuesday, 10 October 17
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - UK P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
- It is common in a lot of trades, whether bulk or oil, to accept a Letter of Indemnity (“LOI”) for non-produ ...
Monday, 09 October 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS NEW HIGH FOR 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 2.13% in October month over month, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchmark pr ...
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Showing 1916 to 1920 news of total 6871 |
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- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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