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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 17 October 17
U.S RECORD EXPORTS OIL TO EAST HAS HELPED THE TANKER TRADE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
There was a flood of fresh news this week which clouded the overall prospects of the crude oil market. Just one week prior Saudi Arabia and Russia, ...
Monday, 16 October 17
INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
Friday, 13 October 17
INDIKA ENERGY SIGNS SHARE PURCHASE AGREEMENTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 45% STAKE IN KIDECO
PT Indika Energy Tbk. and its wholly-owned subsidiary PT Indika Inti Corpindo (collectively, “Indika Energy”) has entered into separate ...
Friday, 13 October 17
THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET REMAIN POSITIVE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market has picked up strongly since last week with the Chinese holidays. In the Pacific rates are increasing with some strong number ...
Friday, 13 October 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS OF 2017 TOTALED 51 MMST; UP 62% YOY, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million shor ...
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Showing 1911 to 1915 news of total 6871 |
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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