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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 27 October 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.9 million short tons ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
CYBER COVER FOR E-BILLS - PHILIP STEPHENSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Increasingly popular electronic bills of lading are, by their nature, susceptible to the risk of cyber attack. Here, Stan ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
INDO TO CHINA ROUNDS SUPRAS ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH $14000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
By mid-week the market has been relatively quiet in the Pacific basin as well, but still some healthy rates being achieved on the differ ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
STRONG SIGNAL FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL DEMAND - GREG EVANS
The International Energy Agency’s Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report, released today, presents a positive outlook for Australian coal produ ...
Wednesday, 25 October 17
COAL MARKETS REMAINED SUBDUED - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets remained subdued.
Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ, Coking coal prices were unchanged amid an absence of fresh of ...
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Showing 1901 to 1905 news of total 6871 |
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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