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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 07 November 17
DRY BULK SHIPPING: TAKE GOOD CARE OF THE RECOVERY SAYS PETER SAND
Demand:
Even without much support from Brazilian iron ore exports during August, capesize rates went from $10,000 to $17,000 per day. In Septembe ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
COAL MARKETS WERE RELATIVELY BUOYANT - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were relatively buoyant. Metallurgical coal prices were supported by the stronger steel and iron ore prices, says Daniel Hynes, Senior ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as ...
Monday, 06 November 17
COAL SHORTAGE HURTS INDIA'S HINDALCO AND VEDANTA SAYS BUSINESS STANDARD
Aluminium smelter operations of Vedanta and Hindalco are at risk of turning unviable due to a coal crunch.
According to Business Standard an I ...
Monday, 06 November 17
MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE EXPECTS BUNKER PRICES WILL CONTINUE UPWARD TREND NEXT WEEK
World fuel indexes rose during the week, supported by main oil producers’ statements about possible extension of oil production cut agreement ...
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Showing 1891 to 1895 news of total 6871 |
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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