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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 14 November 17
COAL STOCKS RUN SHORT, CENTRE TO GET DAILY UPDATE ON STOCKS - DECCAN CHRONICLE
Facing a shortage of coal for thermal power generation in the country, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has issued guidelines for maintainin ...
Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the hi ...
Monday, 13 November 17
THERMAL COAL PRICES WERE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were broadly higher, driven by strong gains in the metallurgical coal market said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ in h ...
Monday, 13 November 17
THIESS AWARDED $300M SANGATTA EXPANSION CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a $300 million contract by Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) to expand operations at Sangatta coal mine in East Kalimantan, Indonesia ...
Friday, 10 November 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF 2017 IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 656 MMST; UP10% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ...
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Showing 1881 to 1885 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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