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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 29 November 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
In line with most expectations for the end of this month, during the past days the Dry Bulk market realized a significant rebound that sent the BDI ...
Tuesday, 28 November 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS SHOWN A REMARKABLE RECOVERY THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Dry Bulk market has shown a remarkable recovery this year with the average earnings having increased by around 63% this year so far compared to ...
Friday, 24 November 17
U.S. PRODUCED 14.9 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOV 18; UP 0.9% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 November 17
PANAMAX: ANOTHER SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK; DECREASING FREIGHT RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start to the week. USG closed last week a bit tighter, and continued into the new week on a positive tone with little concluded, ...
Wednesday, 22 November 17
THERMAL COAL WAS FLAT AMID CONCERNS OF FURTHER GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN CHINA, SAYS DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were mixed. Thermal coal was flat amid concerns of further government intervention in China, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strateg ...
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Showing 1866 to 1870 news of total 6871 |
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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