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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 07 December 17
SUPRAMAX: CHINA TO INDIA FIXING AT MID US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
There has been quite some activity in the Atlantic basin this week, rates out of USG are still firm, trips to Emed gone through at low/m ...
Thursday, 07 December 17
THE ROLE OF COAL - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH - BENJAMIN SPORTON, WCA
At the climate talks in Bonn, a global alliance to phase out coal was launched. This, along with other rhetoric about developments in the energy se ...
Wednesday, 06 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS VASILEIOU
Moving towards the end of 2017, we are facing a relatively slack period of business in the ship repair sector. The repair market has already mature ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
DOES BITCOIN HAVE A FUTURE IN SHIPPING? - ALIBRA SHIPPING
Google now receives more search requests for Bitcoin than for Kim Kardashian, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift combined. This week, a shipping compa ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The cu ...
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Showing 1856 to 1860 news of total 6871 |
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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