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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
Friday, 08 December 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 11.6 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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Showing 1851 to 1855 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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