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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 22 December 17
COAL INDIA BOARD CLEARS THE WAY FOR SCHEME FOR HARNESSING AND ALLOCATING KOYALA (COAL) TRANSPARENTLY IN INDIA - PIB
The Coal India Limited (CIL) Board cleared the decks for signing of Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA), for supply of coal.
According to Press Inform ...
Friday, 22 December 17
WILL THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY BECOME PROFITABLE IN 2018? - PETER SAND, BIMCO
As the dry bulk fleet is already expected to grow at a pace that matches demand growth expected in 2019, focus must be on improving the fundamental ...
Friday, 22 December 17
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
COAL CONSUMPTION DROPS AS GAS AND RENEWABLES CHEW INTO TRADITIONAL MARKETS - BABS MCHUGH
"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022"
Global demand ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
FUEL SHORTAGE TRIGGERS JUMP IN COAL PRICES - CHINA DAILY
China’s thermal coal prices jumped recently as natural gas shortages across the north spurred an unexpected resurgence in demand for coal-fir ...
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Showing 1841 to 1845 news of total 6871 |
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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