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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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