COALspot.com keeps you connected across the coal world
  • JANAURY 2021 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR EXPORTS FIXED AT US$ 75.84 A TON

Submit Your Articles
We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc.

To Submit your article please click here.

International Energy Events


WTI Crude Oil

BRENT Crude Oil

Search News
Latest CoalNews Headlines
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
BIMCOThe second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-even point, though not high enough to make up for losses made during the first part of the year.
Seasonal factors are currently increasing demand, while geopolitical developments, in particular around Chinese coal imports, are pulling on the brakes.
 
Demand drivers and freight rates
 
The second half of this year continues to prove much stronger than the first with China continuing to make up for the lower demand in the rest of the world. Despite the strength of the past few months, average spot-market earnings in the year to date across all ship sizes are at loss-making levels, with time running out to turn this year around.
 
Biggest losses have come for Capesize ships which, despite jumps of up to USD 35,000 per day, have so far this year averaged USD 2,204 per day. Timing here has proven crucial, and decisions as to when – and for how long – to fix a ship on charter has made all the difference to profit and loss. In the first five months of the year, average earnings for a Capesize averaged USD 5,094 per day – around a third of what is needed to break even. On the other hand, between 1 June and mid-November earnings averaged USD 20,247 per day.
 
A second ship size losing more than USD 1,000 per day is the Supramax, which averaged daily losses of USD 1,537. In contrast to the Capesize market, there have been no large swings in Supramax earnings, rather a gradual increase from mid-May to September, since when they have flattened at around USD 10,000 a day.
 
Although average spot-market earnings are loss-making this year, some owners and operators have been able to find money-making opportunities. With the right timing and preparations, an operator with a Contract of Affreightment (COA) fixed on a profitable USD/tonne basis could have chartered a ship when rates were low at the start of the year, widening the profit margin to be made on the COAs.
 
Support for the mid-sized ships in the last months of the year can be found in US exports of soya beans, which have been record breaking in the first months of the export season. The US soya bean marketing year runs from 1 September to 31 August, with the majority of exports coming between September and December.
 
In the first 11 weeks of the marketing year exports totalled 22.3 million tonnes, an 82.5% increase on the 2019/2020 marketing, and up 18.8% on 2017/2018 – the last period before China imposed tariffs on imports of soya beans from the US. As reported, outstanding sales for this season are also high (30.1m tonnes), and records could be broken, but the season is long and many unforeseen disruptions could still arise.
 
Since the tariffs were imposed, China has increased its imports of soya beans from Brazil to make up for lower imports from the US. Despite imports from the US growing considerably, Brazilian exports have not suffered and are up 23.7% so far this year. Many of these soya beans are going straight into stockpiles, as the Chinese pig herd has yet to recover fully to its pre-African Swine Fever levels, limiting growth in actual demand for the beans.
 
As with other commodities, shipping benefits while stocks are being built up, but will pay for it further down the line when – rather than increasing imports – stocks are drawn on to meet demand.
 
China is the only major steel producer to have seen growth in the first nine months of the year. As such, its share of global steel production has risen from 53.7% in the first nine months of 2019 to 58% this year (source: World Steel Association).
 
In spite of the Chinese, growth has not been enough for total steel production to have risen this year, with large drops in the European Union (-21.7m tonnes) and North America (-16.5 million tonnes). Asia without China has seen production fall by 12.5%; if China is included in the statistics, it leaves the continent in the green, though only just (+0.2%). Over the first nine months of the year, global steel production has fallen by 44.8m tonnes (-3.2%) compared with the same period in 2019.
 
Fleet news
 
Deliveries of dry bulk ships have, by mid-November, already reached a four-year high, totalling 42.2 million DWT. BIMCO expects that, by the end of 2020, deliveries will have reached their highest level since 2016, despite the disruption to shipyards at the start of the year. Some 12.5m DWT of ships have been scrapped this year, bringing growth so far to 3.4%. BIMCO expects full-year growth to reach 3.8%, with another 1.5m DWT set to go.
 
The big drivers of fleet development this year have been ore carriers. These account for 54% of total demolitions, with 24 VLOCs with a capacity of 6.7m DWT having been scrapped. Though new deliveries of this ship type account for a much smaller share of the total (15.4%), the 20 new VLOCs delivered this year – some 6.5m DWT – are almost enough to replace all the capacity lost. Looking at the order book, a further four VLOCs are set to be launched this year, bringing total deliveries of hteese ships to 7.9m DWT.
 
BIMCO had expected the VLOC fleet to be renewed this year, as the lion’s share of the VLCC-converted VLOC carriers reached the end of their long-term contracts. These were fixed in between 2010 and 2011 with a duration of around 10 years, the end of which mean the death knell for these 25+-year-old ships. As of the start of November, only eight are still actively trading and a further seven are laid up.
 
BIMCO expects the pace of fleet growth to slow in 2021 to 2%, as the low order book means the number of ships being delivered will fall. Currently 23.5m DWT is expected to be delivered in 2021. Fleet growth of 2% would mark the lowest increase in capacity since the turn of the century.
 
Outlook
 
The most talked about story in the dry bulk market, as the end of the year approaches, is the development in Chinese coal imports. Quotas limiting coal imports – and more recently strong anecdotal evidence of verbal notices to stop imports of Australian coal – mean new orders are being reconsidered or cancelled, and loads arriving in China are facing extended waits. Reportedly, the import stop is because of Australian criticism of China.
 
Based on ship-tracking data from VesselsValue, there were 133 dry bulk ships waiting to discharge in Chinese ports in mid-November, 59 of which had been waiting for 20 days or more. BIMCO is aware of some ships waiting since June 2020.
 
In the third quarter, Chinese coal imports were 31.9% lower than Q3 2019 and October imports were down 46.6% compared with last year – a loss of 60 Capesize loads (200,000 tonnes). The limits on coal exports will likely mean further drops in imports in the final two months of the year.
 
In the short-term, delays in discharging reduces the supply of ships, increasing demand for ships that aren’t tied up and providing a little support to the dry bulk market. However, in the longer term, once these backlogs have been cleared, the impact is likely to be more damaging. Although the distance between Australia and China isn’t particularly great, the volumes are important (74.9 million tonnes in the first three quarters of 2020).
 
A potential upside could appear if China replaced Australian coal with seaborne coal from regions further afield. As it stands, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both offer short sailing distances to China, so any reduction in this share would lead to increases in tonne-mile demand. Whether or not this materialises will depend on Chinese government policy and any decisions it makes about coal imports in 2021. In particular, at what level it will set new coal quotas and how the spat with Australia develops.
 
Differences in how demand for dry bulk goods is developing in different regions of the world can, in part, be explained by the different focus of stimulus packages around the world. While China’s has turned out to be infrastructure heavy in a bid to boost industrial production (6.9% higher in September 2020 than September 2019), extra government spending in more advanced economies has been aimed at avoiding mass unemployment and securing consumer spending.
 
The Chinese approach helps dry bulk shipping, while the other gives a boost to container shipping. More stimulus is needed in many advanced economies, but this is unlikely to skew towards infrastructure spending until the health crisis has been put behind us, and if there is any money left.
 
To some extent, the fall in bunker prices has protected dry bulk earnings from performing even more poorly than they otherwise would have done this year. Voyage costs lower earnings; however, costs have been lower this year because of fuel prices, so earnings have been higher than they otherwise would have been.
 
All forecasts now point to a slow recovery in 2021, which even a 20-year low in fleet growth will not be able to make up for, leaving dry bulk shipping to face another trying year.
Source: BIMCO, Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst


If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.

Recent News

Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports   Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...


Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year   Vietnam’s solar power indust ...


Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.   The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...


Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...


Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...


   1 2 3 4 5   
Showing 6 to 10 news of total 6208
News by Category
Popular News
 
Total Members : 27,258
Member
Panelist
User ID
Password
Remember Me
By logging on you accept our TERMS OF USE.
Free
Register
Forgot Password
 
Our Members Are From ...

  • ICICI Bank Limited - India
  • ACC Limited - India
  • Tata Power - India
  • The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
  • Runge Indonesia
  • Planning Commission, India
  • Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
  • Arch Coal - USA
  • South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
  • Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
  • Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
  • Baramulti Group, Indonesia
  • Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
  • Pinang Coal Indonesia
  • Bhatia International Limited - India
  • Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
  • CCIC - Indonesia
  • Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
  • Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
  • Merrill Lynch Bank
  • Mitsui
  • Adaro Indonesia
  • Rudhra Energy - India
  • Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
  • Videocon Industries ltd - India
  • Total Coal South Africa
  • Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
  • Mechel - Russia
  • Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
  • Dalmia Cement Bharat India
  • Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
  • Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
  • Asian Development Bank
  • Idemitsu - Japan
  • Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
  • Parry Sugars Refinery, India
  • Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
  • Carbofer General Trading SA - India
  • Tamil Nadu electricity Board
  • Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
  • GB Group - China
  • Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
  • SRK Consulting
  • Central Java Power - Indonesia
  • Star Paper Mills Limited - India
  • Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
  • Thriveni
  • LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
  • GNFC Limited - India
  • Bhushan Steel Limited - India
  • International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
  • Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
  • Central Electricity Authority - India
  • Deloitte Consulting - India
  • Gresik Semen - Indonesia
  • ANZ Bank - Australia
  • Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
  • Peabody Energy - USA
  • Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
  • GMR Energy Limited - India
  • Indika Energy - Indonesia
  • Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
  • Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
  • Arutmin Indonesia
  • Anglo American - United Kingdom
  • TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
  • EMO - The Netherlands
  • TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
  • Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
  • Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
  • Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
  • Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
  • Thailand Anthracite
  • Chamber of Mines of South Africa
  • Indorama - Singapore
  • MEC Coal - Indonesia
  • Interocean Group of Companies - India
  • Australian Coal Association
  • UOB Asia (HK) Ltd
  • Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
  • Shenhua Group - China
  • Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
  • HSBC - Hong Kong
  • Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
  • SASOL - South Africa
  • PowerSource Philippines DevCo
  • Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
  • ING Bank NV - Singapore
  • KEPCO - South Korea
  • Petrosea - Indonesia
  • New Zealand Coal & Carbon
  • CNBM International Corporation - China
  • Britmindo - Indonesia
  • Jatenergy - Australia
  • Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
  • Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
  • Goldman Sachs - Singapore
  • GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
  • The Treasury - Australian Government
  • Indogreen Group - Indonesia
  • Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
  • Commonwealth Bank - Australia
  • Maybank - Singapore
  • Indonesia Power. PT
  • Clarksons - UK
  • McKinsey & Co - India
  • Indonesian Coal Mining Association
  • Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
  • AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
  • Maersk Broker
  • Heidelberg Cement - Germany
  • Sojitz Corporation - Japan
  • Inspectorate - India
  • Cardiff University - UK
  • TANGEDCO India
  • Coal India Limited
  • Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
  • Ministry of Mines - Canada
  • Cargill India Pvt Ltd
  • Edison Trading Spa - Italy
  • Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
  • Kobe Steel Ltd - Japan
  • Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
  • Trasteel International SA, Italy
  • Surastha Cement
  • ETA - Dubai
  • Economic Council, Georgia
  • OCBC - Singapore
  • Fearnleys - India
  • IOL Indonesia
  • Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
  • GHCL Limited - India
  • Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
  • CESC Limited - India
  • OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
  • Parliament of New Zealand
  • Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
  • Eastern Coal Council - USA
  • CoalTek, United States
  • Thiess Contractors Indonesia
  • KPCL - India
  • Platts
  • Berau Coal - Indonesia
  • SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
  • J M Baxi & Co - India
  • Minerals Council of Australia
  • Coal and Oil Company - UAE
  • CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
  • Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
  • Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
  • Cemex - Philippines
  • Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
  • Enel Italy
  • Malabar Cements Ltd - India
  • Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
  • Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
  • globalCOAL - UK
  • Coal Orbis AG
  • Medco Energi Mining Internasional
  • PTC India Limited - India
  • Energy Development Corp, Philippines
  • Vitol - Bahrain
  • SMG Consultants - Indonesia
  • Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
  • Petron Corporation, Philippines
  • Gupta Coal India Ltd
  • Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
  • Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
  • SMC Global Power, Philippines
  • MS Steel International - UAE
  • VISA Power Limited - India
  • Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
  • Ince & co LLP
  • WorleyParsons
  • PetroVietnam
  • Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
  • Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
  • KOWEPO - South Korea
  • Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
  • Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
  • Singapore Mercantile Exchange
  • Infraline Energy - India
  • Marubeni Corporation - India
  • Aditya Birla Group - India
  • Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
  • London Commodity Brokers - England
  • KPMG - USA
  • McConnell Dowell - Australia
  • EIA - United States
  • Wilmar Investment Holdings
  • Independent Power Producers Association of India
  • World Bank
  • Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
  • Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
  • SUEK AG - Indonesia
  • TRAFIGURA, South Korea
  • Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
  • IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
  • Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
  • Shree Cement - India
  • Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
  • Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
  • Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
  • Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
  • Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
  • Xindia Steels Limited - India
  • GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
  • Core Mineral Indonesia
  • NTPC Limited - India
  • Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
  • Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
  • The India Cements Ltd
  • Inco-Indonesia
  • Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
  • Adani Power Ltd - India
  • Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
  • Posco Energy - South Korea
  • Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
  • NALCO India
  • JPower - Japan
  • Argus Media - Singapore
  • Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
  • BNP Paribas - Singapore
  • Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
  • Coeclerici Indonesia
  • Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
  • Ernst & Young Pvt. Ltd.
  • Mercator Lines Limited - India
  • Cement Manufacturers Association - India
  • SGS (Thailand) Limited
  • Sical Logistics Limited - India
  • Thomson Reuters GRC
  • Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
  • Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
  • Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
  • Bangladesh Power Developement Board
  • PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
  • Agrawal Coal Company - India
  • Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
  • World Coal - UK
  • Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
  • Mitra SK Pvt Ltd - India
  • Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
  • DBS Bank - Singapore
  • BRS Brokers - Singapore
  • Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
  • Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
  • Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
  • Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
  • Cosco
  • Thermax Limited - India
  • Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
  • Coaltrans Conferences
  • Eastern Energy - Thailand
  • PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
  • Qatrana Cement - Jordan
  • Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
  • Thai Mozambique Logistica
  • The University of Queensland
  • TNPL - India
  • Indian Oil Corporation Limited
  • Russian Coal LLC
  • Barclays Capital - USA
  • Mjunction Services Limited - India
  • ASAPP Information Group - India
  • Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
  • Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
  • Ministry of Transport, Egypt
  • Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
  • Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
  • RBS Sempra - UK
  • Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
  • Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
  • Lafarge - France
  • Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
  • Freeport Indonesia
  • Vale Mozambique
  • Indian School of Mines
  • Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
  • Cebu Energy, Philippines
  • Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
  • Deutsche Bank - India
  • San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
  • Panama Canal Authority
  • Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
  • Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
  • Xstrata Coal
  • Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
  • Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
  • Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
  • Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
  • bp singapore
  • Credit Suisse - India
  • GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
  • Glencore India Pvt. Ltd
  • Maruti Cements - India
  • JPMorgan - India
  • Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
  • Moodys - Singapore
  • Permata Bank - Indonesia
  • India Bulls Power Limited - India
  • Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
  • Platou - Singapore
  • Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
  • Reliance Power - India
  • Siam City Cement - Thailand
  • IMC Shipping - Singapore
  • TGV SRAAC LIMITED, India
  • Noble Europe Ltd - UK
  • Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
  • Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
  • Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
  • Samsung - South Korea
  • Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
  • IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
  • Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
  • UBS Singapore
  • Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
  • Humpuss - Indonesia
  • APGENCO India
  • Tanito Harum - Indonesia
  • Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
  • PLN Batubara - Indonesia
  • Bank of China, Malaysia
  • Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
  • Mitsubishi Corporation
  • Bank of America
  • Geoservices-GeoAssay Lab
  • Bangkok Bank PCL
  • Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
  • Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
  • U S Energy Resources
  • IBC Asia (S) Pte Ltd
  • Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
  • Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
  • Georgia Ports Authority, United States
  • Latin American Coal - Colombia
  • Sucofindo - Indonesia
  • Renaissance Capital - South Africa
  • Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
  • European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
  • White Energy Company Limited
  • Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
  • Asia Cement - Taiwan
  • Vedanta Resources Plc - India
  • Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
  • Romanian Commodities Exchange
  • Malco - India
  • PLN - Indonesia
  • Japan Coal Energy Center
  • Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
  • Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
  • Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia