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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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