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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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