We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
|
|
|
Showing 766 to 770 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
