We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
|
|
|
Showing 731 to 735 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
