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Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
Fitch RatingThe Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and sustained strength in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, Fitch Ratings says. Biodiesel is now much more expensive than regular diesel, and the subsidies drawn from an industry fund to promote biodiesel production and use have been increasing.
 
We estimate that the industry fund will be able to subsidise only around 8 million kilolitres (kl) of biodiesel, compared with the government's target of use of 9.6 million kl in 2020, in the absence of other measures. This suggests that Indonesia may miss its target for 2020. Also, the outlook for biodiesel demand in 2021 and CPO export levies, which contribute to the fund, is uncertain.
 
We think the government may scale down its plans to increase biodiesel use in Indonesia, take steps to raise collections for the industry fund through higher palm oil export levies or trim subsidies given to biodiesel producers. These actions will not only affect such producers, but are also likely to affect CPO prices and the broader palm oil industry.
 
Among rated names, Golden Agri-Resources Ltd. (GAR), whose consolidated profile is the basis for the rating of subsidiaries, PT Ivo Mas Tunggal and PT Sawit Mas Sejahtera (both rated A-(idn)/Stable), and PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA, B+/A(idn)/Negative) have significant biodiesel capacities and it contributes significantly to revenue.
Source: FITCH


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