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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
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