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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
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