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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingFitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and prices. Fitch also expects the recovery to continue into 2021, as we do not envisage a second round of strict lockdowns.
 
Fitch has revised its full-year coal-price assumptions, and also assumes lower volumes of 84%-89% of 2019 levels in 2020, reflecting weaker seaborne coal demand, before recovering gradually in 2021. There are further downside risks to volumes beyond our estimates, from a sustained weakness in coal prices.
 
Fitch also said, credit metrics of most Indonesian miners and contractors are likely to decline in 2020 close to - or beyond - our negative rating action triggers, affected by lower profitability and weaker volumes before recovering in 2021. Recurring sporadic lockdowns are likely to delay revival in economic growth, and in turn hurt demand for coal in key import markets.
 
Fitch also said, we envisage the ratings on most of the Indonesian coal companies to be at risk if the current weak coal price and demand environment continues into 2021. PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA, BB-), PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABM, B+) and PT Indika Energy Tbk (Indika, BB-), which are currently on Negative Outlook, are the most prone to a rating downgrade.


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