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Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Banchero Costa logoBrazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 months of 2020, Brazil exported 238.7 mln tonnes of iron ore by sea, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This  represents  a  net  decline  of -4.9% y-o-y compared to the 250.9 mln tonnes exported in the same period of 2019, and is also -15.9% lower  than the 283.8  mln tonnes exported in Jan-Sep 2018, Banchero Costa said in its latest weekly report.
 
However, the report noted that, this is a much better result than what could have been expected at the start of the year.
 
In January 2020, when China was starting to be hit by the pandemic, Brazil  managed  to  ship  out  just 20.8 mln tonnes of iron ore. This was a whopping -26.6% less than in December 2019, and -30.8% down on a year-on-year basis. In the whole of the first quarter of 2020,  Brazil  exported  65.0 mln tonnes of iron ore,  which was a disappointing  -17.2% decline on the same period last year. At the time, most people thought that things could go even worse, what with all the lockdowns and terrible forecasts for the economy.
 
However, Accordin to the report, January proved to be the low point of the year. In April-June 2020, ore exports increased   to   77.9   mln   tonnes, which  was  +19.9%  more  than  in the first quarter of the year,  and actually up +1.4% year-on-year but only due to the low base of a disastrous second quarter last year, which was heavily impacted by the Brumadinho dam disaster. Things  were  even  better  in  the third quarter of 2020. In the July- September period, Brazil exported 95.9 mln tonnes of iron ore, which was a strong +23.1% more than in the second quarter, and also +0.2% more than in 3Q2019. In terms of trading patters, China is emerging as even more dominating than it already was.
 
Banchero Costa report further noted, direct shipments to China remained by far the top destination this year, accounting for 66.9% of Brazil’s iron ore exports in Jan-Sep 2020. This is up from a 61.2% share in the same period last year. Total direct volumes to China increased by +3.9% y-o-y   in Jan- Sep 2020 to 159.6 mln tonnes. Shipments to Malaysia (essentially Vale’s transhipment  facilities) decreased  sharply  though,  by -29.9% y-o-y to 11.6 mln tonnes.
 
Malaysia was the destination of 4.9% of iron ore shipments  from Brazil so far this year. From   Malaysia,   8.3   mln   tonnes were then shipped onwards to China (70%), and 2.6 mln tonnes to Vietnam (22%), with most of the rest to Indonesia (4%). Volumes also declined from Brazil to  Japan,  by  -33.4%  y-o-y  to  5.3 mln tonnes, and to South Korea by -21.3% y-o-y to 4.3 mln tonnes.
 
Direct shipments to Japan now account for 2.2% of Brazil’s total iron ore exports, whilst those to South Korea account for 1.8%. Shipments from Brazil to the EU (excluding the UK) dropped by a sharp -45.0% y-o-y this year.
 
The European Union accounted for 5.5% of Brazil’s iron ore shipments. Exports to the GCC countries (primarily pelletising  plants in Oman and Bahrain) declined by -26.1% y-o-y in Jan-Sep 2020.
 
The GCC accounted for 4.3% of Brazil’s exports this year. Finally, shipments to Turkey increased marginally by +2.1% y-o- y to 3.7 mln tonnes.


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