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Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the coming winter period due to the seasonal demand for oil and its derivatives, however, such a boost will likely not suffice in positioning the market towards a recovery phase. With a second COVID-19 wave being potentially imminent, a dampening of crude oil demand may be upon us. A softened importing activity is already being observed in China (the world’s most prominent importer of crude). Chinese imports have been on a slowdown with volumes approaching end of Q1 – start of Q2 levels. Similar import tendencies have been exhibited by other leading importers due to the expectation of a second lockdown.
Tanker vessel values have come under significant pressure from the start of the year. With the exception of a few short-lived periods when a high demand for older tonnage due to storage projects was observed, crude ships have seen their values decline year-to-date. Leaving aside the Ocean tanker’s fleet, there is a scarcity of 5 to 10-year-old crude tankers on sale. There is a slightly higher supply of candidates for sale in the 13-16-year-old tanker vessel segment. The question is whether one should invest in a 15-year old crude tanker under a market that shows little signs of recovery. The present-day assumption employed by seasoned shipping veterans is that there is still a long way to go until the tanker market reaches rock bottom.
Despite potential long-run returns that an investment in a depressed market may yield, it can be argued that taking a stake in the secondhand market under the current market conditions may not be the only way forward for a shipping company. Present-day VLCC and Suezmax orderbook to fleet ratios are 8% and 9% respectively which are 5-year lows. Moreover, if we factor in demolitions to be undertaken until the end of the year, we could be looking at lower VLCC, Suezmax and crude tanker fleet growths than the already respectively subdued ones of 2.5%, 3.3% and 2.4%.
Newbuilding prices placed in Japanese, South Korean and Chinese yards with established track records have significantly decreased since the start of the year. Current VLCC and Suezmax newbuildings come at 8% and 10% price reductions respectively as opposed to January, 2020. Placing a VLCC or Suezmax order may make intuitive sense should the pressure on the tanker market continue to mount while signs of a recovery ahead remain bleak. By placing an order now, one would be allowing for a healthy time leeway for the combating of the pandemic. Despite being in the middle of a global health crisis, the shipping market still holds numerous opportunities in both the newbuilding and secondhand fronts which are awaiting to be exploited.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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