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Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the coming winter period due to the seasonal demand for oil and its derivatives, however, such a boost will likely not suffice in positioning the market towards a recovery phase. With a second COVID-19 wave being potentially imminent, a dampening of crude oil demand may be upon us. A softened importing activity is already being observed in China (the world’s most prominent importer of crude). Chinese imports have been on a slowdown with volumes approaching end of Q1 – start of Q2 levels. Similar import tendencies have been exhibited by other leading importers due to the expectation of a second lockdown.
Tanker vessel values have come under significant pressure from the start of the year. With the exception of a few short-lived periods when a high demand for older tonnage due to storage projects was observed, crude ships have seen their values decline year-to-date. Leaving aside the Ocean tanker’s fleet, there is a scarcity of 5 to 10-year-old crude tankers on sale. There is a slightly higher supply of candidates for sale in the 13-16-year-old tanker vessel segment. The question is whether one should invest in a 15-year old crude tanker under a market that shows little signs of recovery. The present-day assumption employed by seasoned shipping veterans is that there is still a long way to go until the tanker market reaches rock bottom.
Despite potential long-run returns that an investment in a depressed market may yield, it can be argued that taking a stake in the secondhand market under the current market conditions may not be the only way forward for a shipping company. Present-day VLCC and Suezmax orderbook to fleet ratios are 8% and 9% respectively which are 5-year lows. Moreover, if we factor in demolitions to be undertaken until the end of the year, we could be looking at lower VLCC, Suezmax and crude tanker fleet growths than the already respectively subdued ones of 2.5%, 3.3% and 2.4%.
Newbuilding prices placed in Japanese, South Korean and Chinese yards with established track records have significantly decreased since the start of the year. Current VLCC and Suezmax newbuildings come at 8% and 10% price reductions respectively as opposed to January, 2020. Placing a VLCC or Suezmax order may make intuitive sense should the pressure on the tanker market continue to mount while signs of a recovery ahead remain bleak. By placing an order now, one would be allowing for a healthy time leeway for the combating of the pandemic. Despite being in the middle of a global health crisis, the shipping market still holds numerous opportunities in both the newbuilding and secondhand fronts which are awaiting to be exploited.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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