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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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