We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
 It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up for final approval this year and next. Instead of a feast of new projects, there’s a famine.
Developers, cash-strapped by the collapse in oil and gas prices, have pushed back on capital-intensive pre-FID LNG projects. Massimo Di-Odoardo, Global Head of Gas Analysis, identifies three other factors.
First, the outlook for LNG demand. We are bullish, anticipating LNG demand doubles over the next 20 years, driven by Asia’s economic growth and increasing penetration – particularly where policy supports gas over coal. Our view isn’t dissimilar to Shell’s that the LNG market grows at four times the rate of oil demand in that period.
Our base case forecasts global LNG demand grows by over 50% from 370 mmtpa in 2020 to 550 mmtpa by 2030. Allowing for projects already under development, there’s a supply gap of 102 mmtpa to be met by pre-FID projects which need to be onstream by the end of this decade.
But there are risks to our demand view. Gas demand has held up relatively well through the Covid-19 downturn, certainly compared with oil. The pace and shape of economic recovery though is far from clear and so, too, LNG demand growth in the next few years. Longer term, intensifying interest from policy makers and investors in new technologies, including green hydrogen and CCUS, casts doubt on the sustainability of demand growth.
Second, the rising influence of spot LNG prices on project economics. The traditional oil price-linked contracts and firm offtake agreements that have supported the financing of new projects are fading into history. Many projects today rely on equity lifting, with joint venture partners taking the LNG into their own portfolios. The attraction is flexible volumes that can be sold to any buyer and capture the best price.
But it also means rising exposure to spot LNG prices. Japan spot LNG prices have ranged from over US$11/mmbtu in 2018 to as low as US$2.10/mmbtu early this year, underlining the volatility and risk in running an open spot gas position.
Third, scrutiny of carbon intensity. ESG has leapt to the top of the agenda for LNG producers and buyers alike. LNG’s track record on emissions isn’t good. Inert gases including CO2 must be removed before liquefaction and typically are vented into the atmosphere. Liquefaction itself is energy intense, usually fuelled by produced gas.
In future, carbon footprint will be one factor determining how attractive an LNG project is to developers and buyers, and will influence the price it can command. New projects will have to be squeaky clean: developers will seek to electrify the liquefaction process (renewables where possible) and capture waste gases. Project economics will also be affected by carbon price assumptions.
Which pre-FID projects will fill the 102-mmtpa supply gap in 2030? First up are the mega-trains of Qatar’s low unit cost North Field East, which should be sanctioned in the coming months. This project on its own will absorb 32 mmtpa, negating the need for new supply from other sources until the late 2020s and pushing out FIDs for projects elsewhere by two to three years. Qatar believes it has another 16 mmtpa up its sleeve at North Field South that it could also develop.
So contestable demand for the rest is 70 mmtpa at best in 2030. A dozen or more projects from PNG, Australia, Mozambique, West Africa, Russia and North America, with combined capacity of more than 150 mmtpa, will be vying for their share.
The costs of integrated projects are discounted at 12%. Segmented projects – at 10% discount rate for LNG plant, 15% discount rate for upstream. Taxes are included. US Upstream assumption = 115% X Henry Hub (US$3.29/mmbtu – equivalent to average of long term H1 2020 Henry Hub forecast between 2026 and 2035) *The reference prices indicated by company logos indicate the long term prices used by companies for the purposes of valuing their assets. Assumed to be in Real terms (2020) from 2023.
How can prospective developers gain a better understanding to help support their big decisions? Wood Mackenzie’s new Global Gas Model Next Generation allows investors to analyse global gas market fundamentals and price formation; how LNG cash cost economics, coal-to-gas switching and shipping costs shape price differentials between the US, Europe and Asia markets; and how the cost stack for pre-FID projects evolves over time to meet any particular demand scenario. The model provides a framework to understand a project’s profitability under current market uncertainties.
We’ll be discussing LNG market dynamics, the investment outlook and lifecycle emissions for LNG projects at our Energy Summit (6 to 8 October 2020).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
|
|
|
Showing 776 to 780 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
|
| |
| |
|
