We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
 It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up for final approval this year and next. Instead of a feast of new projects, there’s a famine.
Developers, cash-strapped by the collapse in oil and gas prices, have pushed back on capital-intensive pre-FID LNG projects. Massimo Di-Odoardo, Global Head of Gas Analysis, identifies three other factors.
First, the outlook for LNG demand. We are bullish, anticipating LNG demand doubles over the next 20 years, driven by Asia’s economic growth and increasing penetration – particularly where policy supports gas over coal. Our view isn’t dissimilar to Shell’s that the LNG market grows at four times the rate of oil demand in that period.
Our base case forecasts global LNG demand grows by over 50% from 370 mmtpa in 2020 to 550 mmtpa by 2030. Allowing for projects already under development, there’s a supply gap of 102 mmtpa to be met by pre-FID projects which need to be onstream by the end of this decade.
But there are risks to our demand view. Gas demand has held up relatively well through the Covid-19 downturn, certainly compared with oil. The pace and shape of economic recovery though is far from clear and so, too, LNG demand growth in the next few years. Longer term, intensifying interest from policy makers and investors in new technologies, including green hydrogen and CCUS, casts doubt on the sustainability of demand growth.
Second, the rising influence of spot LNG prices on project economics. The traditional oil price-linked contracts and firm offtake agreements that have supported the financing of new projects are fading into history. Many projects today rely on equity lifting, with joint venture partners taking the LNG into their own portfolios. The attraction is flexible volumes that can be sold to any buyer and capture the best price.
But it also means rising exposure to spot LNG prices. Japan spot LNG prices have ranged from over US$11/mmbtu in 2018 to as low as US$2.10/mmbtu early this year, underlining the volatility and risk in running an open spot gas position.
Third, scrutiny of carbon intensity. ESG has leapt to the top of the agenda for LNG producers and buyers alike. LNG’s track record on emissions isn’t good. Inert gases including CO2 must be removed before liquefaction and typically are vented into the atmosphere. Liquefaction itself is energy intense, usually fuelled by produced gas.
In future, carbon footprint will be one factor determining how attractive an LNG project is to developers and buyers, and will influence the price it can command. New projects will have to be squeaky clean: developers will seek to electrify the liquefaction process (renewables where possible) and capture waste gases. Project economics will also be affected by carbon price assumptions.
Which pre-FID projects will fill the 102-mmtpa supply gap in 2030? First up are the mega-trains of Qatar’s low unit cost North Field East, which should be sanctioned in the coming months. This project on its own will absorb 32 mmtpa, negating the need for new supply from other sources until the late 2020s and pushing out FIDs for projects elsewhere by two to three years. Qatar believes it has another 16 mmtpa up its sleeve at North Field South that it could also develop.
So contestable demand for the rest is 70 mmtpa at best in 2030. A dozen or more projects from PNG, Australia, Mozambique, West Africa, Russia and North America, with combined capacity of more than 150 mmtpa, will be vying for their share.
The costs of integrated projects are discounted at 12%. Segmented projects – at 10% discount rate for LNG plant, 15% discount rate for upstream. Taxes are included. US Upstream assumption = 115% X Henry Hub (US$3.29/mmbtu – equivalent to average of long term H1 2020 Henry Hub forecast between 2026 and 2035) *The reference prices indicated by company logos indicate the long term prices used by companies for the purposes of valuing their assets. Assumed to be in Real terms (2020) from 2023.
How can prospective developers gain a better understanding to help support their big decisions? Wood Mackenzie’s new Global Gas Model Next Generation allows investors to analyse global gas market fundamentals and price formation; how LNG cash cost economics, coal-to-gas switching and shipping costs shape price differentials between the US, Europe and Asia markets; and how the cost stack for pre-FID projects evolves over time to meet any particular demand scenario. The model provides a framework to understand a project’s profitability under current market uncertainties.
We’ll be discussing LNG market dynamics, the investment outlook and lifecycle emissions for LNG projects at our Energy Summit (6 to 8 October 2020).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
|
|
|
Showing 51 to 55 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
