We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
|
|
|
Showing 451 to 455 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
|
| |
| |
|
