We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
|
|
|
Showing 231 to 235 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
