We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
|
|
|
Showing 136 to 140 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
|
| |
| |
|
