We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
|
|
|
Showing 81 to 85 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
