We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
|
|
|
Showing 761 to 765 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
|
| |
| |
|
