We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
|
|
|
Showing 656 to 660 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
