We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
|
|
|
Showing 51 to 55 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
|
| |
| |
|
