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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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