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Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century. The Newcastle benchmark is forecast to average US$56 a tonne in 2020,  before slowly recovering to US$65 a tonne in 2022, said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
 
The report further noted that, the bulk of production cuts are expected to come from Indonesia and the US.  However,  Australia’s exports are forecast to decline from an estimated 213 million tonnes in 2019-20 to 210 million tonnes in 2020-21, as Australian producers come under pressure from low prices. 
 
Australia’s thermal coal exports are forecast to drop from an estimated $20 billion in 2019-20 to $16 billion in 2020-21, before a partial recovery to $17 billion in 2021-22 driven by higher prices and export volumes.
 
Thermal coal prices remained resilient in early 2020 before falling sharply
 
According to Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report, seaborne thermal coal spot prices weathered the impacts of COVID-19 over the first few months of 2020. The benchmark Australian thermal coal spot price Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR (Net As Received) was relatively stable in a US$60-70 a tonne range until early April .   
 
On the demand side, the report said, prices received support from strong buying from China. While COVID-19 restrictions lowered Chinese power consumption, domestic coal production was curtailed by China’s efforts to control the spread of the virus and Chinese buyers turned to imports to make up the shortfall. 
 
The report from Office of the Chief Economist, Australia  said, Vietnam also lifted imports substantially over the first few months of 2020, and demand from India and Japan remained resilient.  On the supply side, South Africa’s lockdown saw exports from the world’s fourth largest exporter curtailed. COVID-19 also disrupted Colombian output, including at the 27 million tonne per annum Cerrejón coal mine the largest in the nation idled from late March until early May.  Against the backdrop of resilient spot prices, the 2020-21 Japanese Fiscal Year contract price (April to March) settled at US$68.75 a tonne, though this still represented a substantial drop from US$95 a tonne for 2019-20.
 
According to the report, by mid-April, however, spot prices had begun to decline due to weakening thermal coal import demand as a result of the impacts of COVID-19. The Newcastle 6,000 kcal spot price hovered around US$50 a tonne during May and the first half of June. 


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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...


Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...


Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...


Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.   According to Assocarbon ...


Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...


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