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Thursday, 29 October 09
CURRENCIES, ASIA DEMAND TO LIFT EUROPE COAL PRICE
 Supportive currency movements and strong Asian demand mean the price of coal delivered into Europe is poised to rise more than 30 percent to above $100 a tonne by mid-2010. Coal prices fell sharply in September last year from historical highs above $200 a tonne, delivered Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (DES ARA), mostly on fears of a deep and protraced global depression. This year they have remained around $65-$75. Now they are seen likely to rise as they follow gains in "coal currencies" such as the Australian dollar, South African rand and Colombian peso against the U.S. dollar, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest Global Energy Weekly report.
Producers' need to protect margins will compel them to seek dollar-denominated sales prices that fully reflect their costs. This will help push coal prices higher. The coal market will rebalance firmly in 2010 primarily due to demand growth in Asia, which will outstrip demand in the West. The current oversupply will be soaked up very quickly, the Bank of America report says.
Even the most doggedly bearish European utilities, traders and coal producers have in the past two weeks stopped expecting a fall to below $60.00 for DES ARA prices. "The short answer is yes, we expect the worst to be over and prices to increase, even if progressively, going forward," said Emmanuel Fages, Carbon and Coal Analyst at Societe Generale. He said that in the very short-term, however, there was good availability of supply in the thermal coal market. SocGen has lowered its short-term forcasts for cost, insurance and freight prices in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (CIF ARA) to $73.00 per tonne in the fourth quarter from $82.00 and to $65.00 per tonne for South African Richards Bay coal from $72.00.
In its latest Commodities Review SocGen says coal prices will not fall now but any rise will be limited in the short term due to high stockpiles in Europe and falling Chinese imports. International Energy Agency coal analyst Brian Ricketts said there was even room for coal to ease before rising. "It's not a bottom for prices, it's a plateau which has been reached. There is further for coal to fall," Ricketts said. "If you're optimistic, then the current plateau is a starting point from which prices can rise," he added. One producer source said the direction for European prices now was up. "We really do think European prices will move back above $100 a tonne by June. Prices have hit the bottom and will start to slowly move higher from now," the source said A major European utility source said: "If you look at supply for next year, there will still be tightness and strong Asian demand. It looks very likely that Europe could be under-supplied."
SWING PRODUCERS
South Africa and Russia have acted as swing producers by diverting substantial tonnage to Asia from Europe rather than cutting output. They are likely to continue to do so next year even when European demand is expected to return to normal. At least 23 million tonnes of South African and Russian exports were diverted to India and China from Europe this year. European utilities next year will have to compete with Asian end-users and pay higher prices to secure coal, producers said. Rail capacity constraints mean South African exports for 2010 may recover only slightly from this year's drop to 60 million tonnes out of 80 million tonnes total export capacity. Exports from Russia and Colombia, the two other key suppliers to Europe, stabilised at around 63 million tonnes and are unlikely to rise next year.
If European demand returns to normal by mid-2010 -- it is picking up already in France and Germany -- and exports continue to swing towards Asia, prices must rise, analysts, producers and consumers say. Nobody is predicting a return to 2008's record prices but delivered Europe levels of $100 and free-on-board South Africa, Russia and Australia's Newcastle prices of $70.00-80.00 would allow all producers to sell above their cash costs.
Sourced from Reuters
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Wednesday, 28 October 09
INVESTMENT IN MINING SECTOR HAMPERED BY LATE REGULATIONS
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesia may have to wait for a potential massive inflow of new investment into the mining sector due to delays in ...
Tuesday, 27 October 09
CHINA'S SEPT. COAL IMPORTS RISE AS ECONOMY RECOVERS
Bloomberg reported that, China, the world’s largest coal user and producer, increased imports of the fuel in September to meet rising domest ...
Monday, 26 October 09
DARWIN EYES PRIVATE INVESTMENT
The Jakarta Post reported that, the new energy and ministerial resources minister, Darwin Zahedy Saleh, has set his sights on accelerating the reali ...
Sunday, 25 October 09
THE FUTURE FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO HAVE POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com (Singapore): According to Vistaar Shipping an experienced ship operator in Singapore, the BDI shot up this week (19-24 October) by abou ...
Saturday, 24 October 09
NTPC SEEKS ALTERNATE COAL SUPPLY FOR KAHALGAON
State-run NTPC is looking at alternate sources of coal to fire its Kahalgaon (Bihar) and Farakka (West Bengal) and power stations, which are facing ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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