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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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